THE POSSIBLE AND THE PROBABLE
We inhabit a world in which we see evidence of randomness in all things. Unlike Newton's determinism, we know that the weather cannot be predicted deterministically, nor can we project very much with full certainty in an uncertain world. This is our apparent experience.
We attribute this to our own lack of knowledge - we think if only we had considered enough variables,we could have predicted the outcome with precision. Indeed this has a tendency to be correct. However, no matter how far we go in adding to the detail, in leveraging our processing power, the element of uncertainty is always there. It shrinks, but it is still there.
How then can we have any comfort? Dwelling on uncertainty does no more than freeze our action. That is why we strive endlessly for better and better information, better forecasts, better advice. We rely on certainty for our sense of well-being - one of many errors we fall into.
Events in our world move from an infinite sphere of possibilities, to a set of probabilities as things are narrowed down, to full certainty only as the event actually happens. Once it has happened, we apply the seal of certainty upon it, even though we still have only certain observations of the event, and often cannot say which or whose we should trust. Certainly eludes us, even to the end. Of course, as the event recedes into the past, even memory grows less certain, unless we mythologize the event by weaving a tale of 'history' around it, one finally agreed version of what took place.
What can you Trust? This is the question. Can you really trust your memory of what happened, any more than you could trust your 'feeling' of what was about to happen?
It turns out that you have considerable choice in how to interpret and regard the events in your life. You have choice of how these things are to be remembered. The event may have been an objective happening, but your experience is purely subjective- it is subject to your decision.
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